Maaseh Rav quotes that the practice of GR"A was to start each day after davening by learning 2 blatt of gemara. The new editions of Maaseh Rav quote commentaries that look for mekoros for the practices of the Gaon, and on this section they point to the gemara (Chulin 24):
כתוב אחד אומר (במדבר ח, כד) מבן חמש ועשרים שנה ומעלה וכתוב אחד אומר (במדבר ד, ג) מבן שלשים אי אפשר לומר שלשים שכבר נאמר כ"ה ואי אפשר לומר כ"ה שכבר נאמר שלשים הא כיצד כ"ה ללמוד ושלשים לעבודה מכאן לתלמיד שלא ראה סימן יפה במשנתו ה' שנים שוב אינו רואה
These meforshim say by covering 2 blatt a day you can finish shas in 5 years and check to make sure you hopefully see siman bracha.
I don't understand this explanation. First of all, simple math: 365 days a year at 2 blatt a day means covering 730 blatt a year. At that pace you can finish shas (2711 blatt according to daf yomi cycle, which includes Ylmi Shekalim for whatever reason) in less than 4 years, not in 5 years. Even if we chop off some time because our lunar calendar has 354 or so days in a year, you gain it back because of the leap years. If you want a 5 year cycle to finish shas, doing 1.5 blatt a day seems closer to the mark. Is there some magic to a round number of doing 2 blatt as opposed to 1.5 a day? Did the GR"A maybe factor in more time to do the masechtos ketanos as well and the mishnayos not covered in the Bavli? Or is this just a "b'erech" calculation?
It also seems that the test of siman bracha comes during the first 5 years of training. After that, inertia takes over and either you have it or you don't. Why should one follow a 5 year regime throughout one's life?
Putting aside the GR"A, there is a different question asked on that gemara: l'mai nafka minah to whether one sees siman bracha or not? One has a chiyuv to learn whether one enjoys it or not, whether one finds the material easy or not, whether one sees bracha or not!
By way of analogy, the gemara writes that a person should always learn even she'lo lishma. The gemara also says that someone who learns she'lo lishma deserves to have never come into the world. Tos resolves the contradiction by distinguishing two types of she'lo lishma: a "neutral" she'lo lishma desire for kavod, money, etc. which is acceptable, and a negative she'lo lishma where one learns in order to argue with others, which is unacceptable. Maharal and R' Tzadok quoting Mahar"Ch Ohr Zaru'a offer a simpler answer. Yes, learning she'lo lishma is a terrible thing, but what's the alternative if that's all one is capable of doing at the moment? Not learning?! That's not an option. A person can't live without learning. So even if it's terrible, learn that way anyway. Here too, after five years if a person takes stock and realizes they just don't have the brains for a daf gemara and there is no siman bracha in it, what's the alternative? Not learning!? There is no such option. So what's the point of this meimra of Chazal?
Some Achronim cite the gemara (Kid 29b):
תָּנוּ רַבָּנַן: הוּא לִלְמוֹד וּבְנוֹ לִלְמוֹד – הוּא קוֹדֵם לִבְנוֹ. רַבִּי יְהוּדָה אוֹמֵר: אִם בְּנוֹ זָרִיז וּמְמוּלָּח וְתַלְמוּדוֹ מִתְקַיֵּים בְּיָדוֹ – בְּנוֹ קוֹדְמוֹ.
and suggest that if there are limited resources, best to invest in a person who does see siman bracha than the person who is struggling.
I think the simplest pshat is the Meiri:
לעולם יהא אדם חרוץ בלמודו בילדותו להשתדל בו כמה שאפשר לו כדי שתהא יגיעת ילדותו מועלת לו לעולם כבר אמרו כל תלמיד שלא ראה במשנתו סימן יפה עד חמש שנים שוב אינו רואה:
Chazal are not speaking from the perspective of someone looking back *after* 5 years and taking stock of whether they have had success in learning or not. Chazal are forward looking, speaking from the perspective of someone about to start this 5 year journey. The point is to inspire a person *before* the 5 years are up to give it his all, because those initial 5 years determine the trajectory of the future.
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