Monday, December 18, 2023

what is the end game in Gaza?

What is Israel's end game in Gaza?  I don't pretend to have the answer to that question.  I'm just spitballing ideas.  It's easy to talk about eradicating Hamas or defeating Hamas, but what exactly does that mean?  Does it mean killing every member of Hamas?  That seems to me to be an impossible task.  Hamas has been compared to the Nazis.  We did not kill every single Nazi in defeating Germany.  There were many even high ranking Nazis who escaped, and certainly many Germans knew and/or were complicit in the Nazi atrocities yet were allowed to resume life as normal after the war.  The same probably will hold true in Gaza.  

Is the goal demilitarizing Gaza, irrespective of whether Hamas or some other entity remains in charge?  The problem is Gaza is not an independent, isolated regime the way Nazi Germany was.  Gaza is one of the many arms of Iran.  So long as the Iranians have funds and weapons to supply Hamas, Hamas will remain in business.  Sealing the Gazan borders completely is nearly impossible, as there are simply too many avenues open to smuggle arms.  To cut off Iran's access to funds and arms requires the cooperation of the US and other international players, and long as Biden remains president (Obama term 3), the US does not seem moved to do anything about the situation.   

Is the end goal removing Hamas from political power?  Polls indicate that a majority of Palestinians support Hamas' actions.  Were elections to be held in Gaza, Hamas would win.  This goal therefore seems to necessitate imposing control by some outside authority on the area.  Who has the trust of Israel and credibility to assume that role?  Does Israel itself really want to become mired in a long term investment of troops patrolling Gaza?

Lots of questions, with no answers.  Glad I'm not in charge making decisions.

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